What if MLB Allowed Ties?

We hate ties in baseball. There were almost riots in 2002 when the All Star game ended in a tie. There has to be a winner, and if that means playing 26 innings to get one then that’s what we’ll do. The massive extra inning games have been cut back with the ghost runner rule - unfortunately, this isn’t a real ghost, but rather a still-living player starting the 10th inning on second base. We’ll change a lot of things, but having a winner isn’t one of them.

So let’s pretend we allow ties anyway. What if MLB ended games at nine innings? To account for the new outcome, they followed soccer’s lead and awarded 3 points per win, 1 per tie, and 0 per loss. What would that do to the standings? We can look at 2022 to get an idea.

First, let’s acknowledge that this system means teams would change strategy during the game, bringing in better relievers earlier, being more aggressive late in game, etc. So while we’re just re-allocating the totals, in reality this wouldn’t capture all the effects.

First, let’s see how many games we’ll be touching:

library(tidyverse)
library(gt)

standings <- read_csv("2022_mlb_standings.csv")
games <- read_csv("2022_team_games.csv")

games %>%
  group_by( Inn) %>%
  mutate(Inn = ifelse(is.na(Inn), 9, Inn)) %>%
  mutate(Inn = ifelse(Inn <= 9, 9, Inn)) %>%
  arrange(Inn) %>%
  summarise(n = n()) %>%
  mutate(games = n/2,
         percent = n / sum(n)) %>%
  select(-n) %>%
  gt() %>%
  tab_style(
    locations = cells_column_labels(columns = everything()),
      style = list(
        cell_text(weight = "bold")
      )
    ) %>%
  fmt_percent(
    columns = percent,
    decimals = 1
  ) %>%
  fmt_number(
    columns = games,
    decimals = 0
  )

Inn	games	percent
9	2,214	91.1%
10	156	6.4%
11	43	1.8%
12	11	0.5%
13	5	0.2%
15	1	0.0%

216 games lasted over 9 innings, 156 of them only went 10. So we’re definitely not saving a lot of playing time here.

games_tie <- games %>%
  mutate(Inn = ifelse(is.na(Inn), 9, Inn),
         isExtraInnings = ifelse(Inn > 9, 1, 0),
         W = ifelse(R > RA, 1, 0),
         L = ifelse(R < RA, 1, 0),
         tRun_Dif = ifelse(isExtraInnings == 1, 0, R - RA),
         tW = case_when(isExtraInnings == 0 & R > RA ~ 1, TRUE ~ 0),
         tL = case_when(isExtraInnings == 0 & R < RA ~ 1, TRUE ~ 0),
         tT = case_when(isExtraInnings == 1  ~ 1, TRUE ~ 0),
         Points = (tW * 3) + (tT * 1) + (tL * 0)
         ) %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  summarise(across(c('tW', 'tT', 'tL', 'Points', 'tRun_Dif') , ~ sum(.x, na.rm = TRUE))) %>%
  arrange(desc(Points))

standings %>%
  separate(division, c("League", "Division")) %>%
  filter(Division != 'Overall') %>%
  select(-GB, -`pythW-L%`) %>%
  rename(Team = Tm) %>%
  inner_join(games_tie) %>%
  arrange(League, Division) %>%
  group_by(League, Division) %>%
  arrange(desc(`W-L%`), Team) %>%
  mutate(rank = row_number(),
         tRank = dense_rank(desc(Points)),
         div_champ = ifelse(rank == 1, 'Y', '')) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  group_by(League, div_champ) %>%
  arrange(desc(`W-L%`)) %>%
  mutate(wc = row_number(),
         wc = ifelse(div_champ != 'Y' & wc <= 3, 'Y', ''),
         t_div_champ = ifelse(tRank == 1, 'Y', '')) %>%
  arrange(desc(Points)) %>%
  group_by(League, t_div_champ) %>%
  mutate(twc = row_number(),
         twc = ifelse(t_div_champ != 'Y' & twc <= 3, 'Y', '')) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  arrange(League, Division) %>%
  group_by(League, Division) %>%
  mutate(note = case_when(div_champ == 'Y' ~ 'Won Division',
                          wc == 'Y' ~ 'Won Wildcard',
                          TRUE ~ ''),
         tnote = case_when(t_div_champ == 'Y' ~ 'Won Division',
                          twc == 'Y' ~ 'Won Wildcard',
                          TRUE ~ '')) %>%
  select(League, Division, Team, W, L, `W-L%`, rank, note,
         tW, tT, tL, Points, tRank, tnote) %>%
  gt() %>%
  tab_style(
    locations = cells_column_labels(columns = everything()),
      style = list(
        cell_text(weight = "bold")
      )
    ) %>%
  tab_spanner(
    label = 'Actual',
    columns = c(W, L, `W-L%`, rank, note)
  ) %>%
    tab_spanner(
    label = 'Tie Scenario',
    columns = c(tW, tT, tL, Points, tRank, tnote)
  ) %>%
  tab_style(
    style = cell_borders(sides = "right", color = "black", 
                         style = "dashed", weight = px(1)),
    locations = cells_body(
      columns = vars(note)
    )
  ) %>%
  cols_label(
    rank = 'Rank',
    note = 'Note',
    tW = 'W',
    tT = 'T',
    tL = 'L',
    tRank = 'Rank',
    tnote = 'Note'
  )

Team	Actual					Tie Scenario
	W	L	W-L%	Rank	Note	W	T	L	Points	Rank	Note
AL - Central
CLE	92	70	0.568	1	Won Division	79	19	64	256	1	Won Division
CHW	81	81	0.500	2		75	15	72	240	2
MIN	78	84	0.481	3		73	15	74	234	3
DET	66	96	0.407	4		63	10	89	199	4
KCR	65	97	0.401	5		60	10	92	190	5
AL - East
NYY	99	63	0.611	1	Won Division	89	18	55	285	1	Won Division
TOR	92	70	0.568	2	Won Wildcard	84	15	63	267	2	Won Wildcard
TBR	86	76	0.531	3	Won Wildcard	75	21	66	246	3	Won Wildcard
BAL	83	79	0.512	4		75	13	74	238	4
BOS	78	84	0.481	5		71	18	73	231	5
AL - West
HOU	106	56	0.654	1	Won Division	101	11	50	314	1	Won Division
SEA	90	72	0.556	2	Won Wildcard	79	16	67	253	2	Won Wildcard
LAA	73	89	0.451	3		66	15	81	213	3
TEX	68	94	0.420	4		62	15	85	201	4
OAK	60	102	0.370	5		54	10	98	172	5
NL - Central
STL	93	69	0.574	1	Won Division	85	12	65	267	1	Won Division
MIL	86	76	0.531	2		77	18	67	249	2	Won Wildcard
CHC	74	88	0.457	3		67	19	76	220	3
PIT	62	100	0.383	5		58	13	91	187	4
CIN	62	100	0.383	4		56	11	95	179	5
NL - East
ATL	101	61	0.623	1	Won Division	95	13	54	298	1	Won Division
NYM	101	61	0.623	2	Won Wildcard	91	12	59	285	2	Won Wildcard
PHI	87	75	0.537	3	Won Wildcard	79	14	69	251	3	Won Wildcard
MIA	69	93	0.426	4		61	17	84	200	4
WSN	55	107	0.340	5		52	10	100	166	5
NL - West
LAD	111	51	0.685	1	Won Division	105	15	42	330	1	Won Division
SDP	89	73	0.549	2	Won Wildcard	77	17	68	248	2
SFG	81	81	0.500	3		74	14	74	236	3
ARI	74	88	0.457	4		69	12	81	219	4
COL	68	94	0.420	5		62	14	86	200	5

All that and the results are essentially the same. We did make one difference - the Padres, despite a better winning record, would stay home while the Brewers would go on to the Wild Card. The Padres had 12 extra winning inns compared to the Brewers 9, so they lost more points in the new system.

The Braves also had more points than the Mets. In the real world, they won the East because, even though both teams had identical records, the Braves won more regular series games against the Mets.

So while this is interesting, given the rather low number of extra inning games and the rather unfortunate side effect of the Padres being shut out of the postseason, we can chalk this up as one more way that doesn’t work.